The Three Brothers Alliance offensive – a new version of the civil war in Myanmar

In Myanmar, the alliance of three armed ethnic groups from the north of the country against the country’s junta allowed the capture of key cities, activated guerrilla groups elsewhere and highlighted the weakness of the military. The offensive began at the end of October this year after the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army formed the so-called Three Brothers Alliance and announced “Operation 1027”. According to some analysts, the offensive would not have taken place without the hidden consent of China, which influenced many of Myanmar’s ethnic groups and did nothing to stop the operation. Many guerrilla groups have bases close to Myanmar’s borders with the People’s Republic of China.

In mid-November this year, an entire battalion of Myanmar troops stationed near the border with China surrendered to the alliance. The surrender of 261 soldiers in Shan State may be the most significant such act by regular armed forces since the military coup in February 2021.

The Three Brothers Alliance has occupied over 80 military outposts and weapons and ammunition depots. The junta lost, among others, the main border crossing for trade with China. The Arakan Army, fighting for greater autonomy in Rakhine State, announced the seizure of military posts there. Fighting also broke out in the state of Chin, bordering India, resulting in approximately 5,000 people escaping to the Indian state of Mizoram. According to the UN, 1.7 million people have been forced to flee their homes since the military coup in Myanmar.